Upcoming Critical Water Decision

Dear Friends & Neighbors,

On August 13, Monterey County is facing one of the most significant decisions of recent years. The Salinas Valley Basin Groundwater Sustainability Agency (SVBGSA) is examining three options for water infrastructure which will impact the next 40 years and even beyond. I have expressed concerns about this decision for many months and tried to draw as much attention to the options being discussed.

The first point to consider is that this is not a county or locally driven action. It is the result of the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA) passed in 2014 by the state to address declining groundwater levels statewide. The Salinas Valley Basin extends roughly from Prunedale to the San Luis Obispo County line.

SVBGSA must come up with a plan to push back seawater intrusion. The deadline is now. Failure to do so or an inadequate plan will invite a takeover of our water resources by the state. The state will not build projects. The likely scenario is that it will order an across-the-board 35% cut in water use and remove all local control and place decision-making in Sacramento.

A 35% cut would be economically devastating. This is not just a cut to agriculture, but to businesses, residential areas, recreational use and any and all other water consumers. The economic impact will be in the billions of dollars with an equivalent economic devastation as another Great Depression.While there are many competing views on what can be done, the one part that everyone agrees is that a state takeover is unacceptable.

The SVBGSA Board is composed of 11 members. I am one. None of the three options available are attractive. The financial costs are enormous.

Portfolio 1 is the most expensive option, at an estimated $1.3 billion. It creates the Brackish Groundwater Restoration Project (BGRP). Brackish groundwater (freshwater that is contaminated with seawater) would be pumped from the coastal area around Highway One, treated and injected farther inland to create a barrier against seawater intrusion while pushing the seawater back to the coast. It also includes using Salinas River water to recharge groundwater, improvements to the current Castroville Seawater Intrusion Project that involves injecting treated water from Monterey One Water and a 10% reduction in groundwater demand born by the agriculture community. Annual operating costs are estimated at $118 million, but that doesn’t include the tens of millions more in repaying back capital costs, interest on debt, or future replacement costs. A more realistic annual bill would be $150 million or even $200 million to the county. This project estimates that it could meet the 2040 state-mandated timeline for groundwater sustainability.

Portfolio 3A is the second option, at an estimated $1 billion. It also constructs a BGRP, but a reduced version. It calls for using Salinas River water to recharge groundwater, improvements to the current Castroville Seawater Intrusion Project, and a 10% reduction in groundwater demand. Besides being injected, the treated water would also be delivered to Salinas, Marina and Castroville. This creates a product that could be purchased to help reduce operation and maintenance costs. In addition to capital costs, annual operations and maintenance would be around $74 million. This figure also does not include repaying back the capital or interest on debt. Its annual costs would be well over $100 million, probably considerably more. The downside is that it may not meet the 2040 state timeline.

The third option is Portfolio 3. It relies on river recharge, existing recycled water improvements, limited injections and a 20% reduction in groundwater demand. It would only cost $600 million to build with annual operating costs of just $8 million, not including capital and interest expenses. However, it does not appear capable of meeting state requirements for seawater intrusion.

The true impact of these costs and practices does not just rest with these highly uncomfortable numbers. These options require fallowing farmland, which sounds like a sensible solution until the ripple of economic impacts are evaluated. For example, a 10% or 20% cut in groundwater use, usually referred to as demand management, would have an estimated impact on farm revenue would be in the hundreds of millions of dollars. Agriculture is the major user of water so that is to be expected.

However, the agricultural impact is nowhere near the total economic impact. Demand management has a rippling effect. Food processing, trucking, agriculture suppliers and a host of associated agricultural industries are impacted. It doesn’t stop there. Farm dollars don’t stay on the farm or even in the industry. Those who work in agriculture spend money at restaurants, clothing stores, healthcare, electronics — everything that everyone not involved in agriculture spends money on. The impact won’t stay in the Salinas Valley either. Those dollars travel to the Monterey Peninsula. A 10% reduction through demand management will have direct and indirect effects of $1.35 billion every single year. A 20% reduction would be $1.9 billion. Jobs will be lost, businesses will close and housing values will decline. The only thing more expensive than 10%-20% demand management cuts in water is a state mandated 35%.

Then there are the often-unimagined consequences. Demand management means thousands of acres will be fallowed. Most of that land will be between Salinas and the coast. A farmer isn’t going to stop planting crops and let the land revert to nature. It’s possible some land can be used for water storage, solar panels or other beneficial use. But there are only so many commercial uses that exist for farmland. One of the most prominent is housing. It is likely that much of the land will be developed for houses. Placing houses on fallowed land isn’t a 100% cut in groundwater use either. Houses use 25-40% of the water of an irrigated farm. Building houses will compel further groundwater reduction and more houses. The economic impact then continues to ripple. How many visitors will come to the Monterey Peninsula if they must drive through another budding San Jose as Salinas grows to the coast? The beauty of this area will be permanently transformed. Monterey County will become a bedroom community for the Bay Area.

Worst case scenario? Yes, but that scenario is facing us. Difficult decisions will have to be made to avoid even a more difficult decision. Hopefully, with whatever is chosen, compromises, changes in state law, new funding choices or even other alternatives will arise to protect what we currently have.

As always, don't hesitate to reach out to my office for assistance. You can reach us at 831-755-5022 or district2@countyofmonterey.gov.

Sincerely,

Glenn Church

District 2 Supervisor